Tucson MLS Statistics May 2012

Even though our Nations Economy and housing markets have been very bad, we in Tucson and now Phoenix, are seeing a rebound in our housing markets. It has been good news, and some bad news for the past 8 months. The statistics are not bad for May, but it is what I am seeing, that bothers me. The numbers are mostly going in the right direction to get a few more people out of the housing/loan mess. But what bothers me, is the number of listings available (3544), and the fact that we are getting multiple offers on properties which may seem good, but what if it starts another mini 2005, and the appraisers are not able to justify the increases in prices. It really should be and orderly market with steady increases and not the large jumps that will hurt us again. If you have not experienced the ‘Highest and Best’ offer request, watch out. Banks do not want to tell you what they will accept, and want you to bid against some other person, that may or may not exist, until you go possibly higher than the house will appraise for. I understand fair market value, but not what is starting again. And by the way, they want you to buy it As-Is. Watch out!!

Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price
Total Units Sold*
Active Listings
Days On Market
Listings Under Contract**
Sales Over $500,000
The figures on this table are subject to change due to late reportings and corrections. These changes are reflected in the next months statisical blog post after we receive the updated information. For this reason you will find inconsistencies if you compare the data on multiple tables.
* Closed during the month.
** For the current month (not the total listing under contract) 

I was looking at the financing numbers used for May purchases: FHA-279, VA-104, Conventional-425, Cash-473. What jumped out at me was the balance of financing and the high number of cash buyers. I guess we will see that until we get very low on the Short Sales and Foreclosure properties. Also look at the lower number of homes $500,000 and above down to 36. This is what caused the average to go down.

Another area that showed up in this mornings paper was the increase in the number of Notice of Sale filings in Pima County for February thru May (918, 904, 910, 984, with only 705 in January). Looks like the Banks were holding back in Arizona from the Robo signings going on in other States, and the ultimate Settlement each state got. Our Inventory will be going back up with Short Sales and REO(Forclosures) properties coming on the market. If the value seems low, it is, as the agent wants to create a number of buyers biding against each other. Have a Market Analysis done on the property you want to buy and do a fair offer that has a good chance of being accepted, but be prepared to go higher!

I am not suggesting higher offers, just fair to the market price. If the Inventory goes up, it will take some of the pressure off, but watch out again for the REO properties. I still think the best value is in the Short Sale properties, if you can wait. You should end up right now just under the Fair Market value(CMA or FMV).

I will have guest opinions that I will be adding to my blog, so pay attention to them. The one from Renee Hahne at NOVA gives some tougher guidelines for FHA and I believe you will see more of these coming down the line to help eliminate the weaker buyers that should be renters, until they have their finances under control. For many of these buyers it may only take a year if they really work at reducing their credit problems.

Now the last item. I really believe we will be seeing more new homes coming up in existing subdivisions or new subdivisions getting started. If the builders are smart, they would start with something that would sell between $100,000 to $150,000, with just a few 2 bedrooms, and more 3 bedrooms, and about half that number of 4 bedrooms. All with 2 car garage and a max of 1800 Square feet. 3 bedrooms should be about 1500 SF or less. 2 bathrooms in all, with a 10X10 covered rear patio. You should be able to buy one of these for the same price as a used one for now. MR Builder think hard about this. Land is a lot cheaper right now.

I do help you find the right New home also. That used to be the best buys for my clients a number of years ago.

Contact me any time at 520-240-7130 and be sure to use the following sites:

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Tucson, AZ 85710